Happy Friday eve, readers. I’m Phil Rosen coming to you from New York. There are so many inflation calls that it can be difficult to keep track of where the top voices say we stand.
At least one official is ready to admit they were wrong on the issue as prices continue to rise.
Let’s jump in.
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1. Janet Yellen says she was wrong about inflation. Last year, Treasury Secretary Yellen shrugged off inflation. She had called it a manageable risk.
This week, Yellen gave a different take.
“I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take,” she told CNN. “There have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy…that at the time I didn’t fully understand, but we recognize now.”
“We’re going to be talking about this problem next year” if the Fed loses conviction, he said Wednesday. “And the consequences are not just for the markets but for the real economy and the most vulnerable segment of our society are going to be even more consequential.”
The implications of prolonged inflation for the stock market are dire. Stocks could see more steeper declines if Fed Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t act fast. Already, indexes have plummeted this year, but high prices could keep dragging on shares, Barclays analysts wrote yesterday.
“As a result of the current high levels of inflation, our fair value model points to further downside risk for valuations (~10%), especially if inflation does not subside quickly,” analysts wrote.
In other news:
2. US stock future rise early Thursday. Meanwhile, oil prices were down, following a report that Saudi Arabia is prepared to raise crude production if Russia’s output sinks under EU sanctions. Here are the latest market moves.
3. On the docket: Asana, Lululemon Athletica, Tillys, and Okta, all reporting. Plus, OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers, which include Russia, are meeting today for a regular policy meeting. Also, look out for the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report at 7:30 am ET.
4. The investing chief for a $120 billion wealth manager breaks down what could spur stocks to rally and break out of the bear market. Alexander Chaloff laid out three scenarios where stocks rebound by the end of 2022: “We’re clearly near the bottom.”
5. Oil should be around $70 as demand drops and a recession looms, according to Citi. The firm cut its demand expectations by 1.4 million barrels for this year as economic turmoil looms. In an interview with Bloomberg, Citi’s head of commodity research broke down why oil is overvalued at $120 a barrel.
6. Goldman Sachs warned that Russia could further choke off natural-gas supplies in response to the EU’s oil ban. The European continent has been battling with Russia over energy, with Brussels banning oil imports — however, Goldman Sachs’ analysts said more energy squeezes could seriously dent economic growth for Europe.
7. Solana tumbled Wednesday after its blockchain network suffered its second outage in a month. The token suffered similar turbulence on May 1, when the network had remained down for about seven hours. Get the full details here.
8. A top market technician told investors to double down on energy just before it surged 42%. JC Parets broke down five trades that could now buck the bearish trend in the markets — and shared three signals to watch before going all in on crypto and stocks.
9. Deutsche Bank’s chief strategist said stocks could jump another 15% by the end of the year. There’s still more downside ahead, but that doesn’t mean a strong rally is out of the question, according to the top exec. Here’s why he’s bullish even if a recession kicks off soon.
10. Job openings dipped from record highs in April. The US boasted 11.4 million job openings at the end of April, down from the prior month’s 11.9 million. The data shows companies are still grappling with the labor shortage.